Four years after the beginning of the full-scale war, Ukrainian refugees are increasingly integrated into European societies. While many still hope to return home, a growing proportion are building long-term lives abroad due to security concerns, economic realities, and the integration of their children.
Since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, millions of Ukrainians have been forced to leave the country. Most refugees remain in European countries, especially Germany, Poland, and other EU states. The refugee population consists predominantly of women and children.
The recent study shows that after several years of war 43% of refugees plan to return to Ukraine 36% do not plan to return or consider it unlikely the remaining share is uncertain about future plans.
Integration indicators have improved significantly: More refugees are employed or studying abroad. Children are fully integrated into host-country schools. Language skills and local social networks are increasing
As a result, many refugees are developing long-term life plans outside Ukraine.
Major barriers to returning to Ukraine
The research identifies several factors discouraging return:
Security concerns (ongoing war and missile attacks) Destroyed housing or infrastructure Lower wages and economic uncertainty in Ukraine Children already integrated in foreign education systems Established jobs and social networks abroad
These structural barriers make large-scale return unlikely in the near future.
Future uncertainty around temporary protection
The research also assesses refugees’ readiness for the possible termination of EU temporary protection starting.
Many refugees are seeking more stable legal status considering long-term residence permits exploring citizenship or permanent settlement options
Legal uncertainty remains a major concern for refugee communities.
Link to the research:
